It's Getting Scary Out There

And I am not just referring to Halloween. With the sub-prime mortgage meltdown, the Stock Market faltering and a presidential election coming up we have a lot to be afraid of. As Geena Davis' character said in the 1986 remake of The Fly: "Be afraid. Be very afraid." It is the upcoming election that may be the most frightening. Paraphrasing another movie quote by General "Buck" Turgidson from Dr. Strangelove: "But it is necessary now to make a choice, to choose between two admittedly regrettable, but nevertheless distinguishable, (post-election) environments:" Obama vs McCain.

Neither candidate has done a very good job of illuminating their policies and platforms. Much ado has been made about the character and experience of the candidates and their running mates. With the focus now on the economy (the Iraq war having taken a back seat) we probably know more about the candidates' economic ideas than anything else. Obama would give some minor tax breaks for the middle class, increase taxes on the top 2% of earners, increase the capital gains tax and mandate some kind of expanded, if not universal, health coverage. McCain would keep the Bush tax cuts, including not raising the capital gains tax and provide a health insurance tax credit to offset ending the tax break for employer provided health benefits. Pretty standard and uninspiring stuff.

The scary part for an Obama win is not the man himself but the real possibility of what the Wall Street Journal called a "liberal supermajority" in Congress. This would be an almost Republican opposition-proof legislature dominated by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. And with no threat of a Republican presidential veto this would be the first time in decades that we would have such concentrated partisan power in Washington.

Many would argue this is a good thing. We need to tilt the US back to the left to offset all the right-leaning polices of the last eight years (and really before that because Clinton was more moderate than most of the right would have us believe). The real danger is not what the supermajority might do but how they would do it. The checks and balances of a congress tilted one way versus a president the other would be lost.

So what about a McCain win? To be blunt: It could be a disaster. It certainly would crush the whole "Audacity of Hope" thing and could even cause some form of civil unrest not unlike after the Rodney King cop beating acquittals. I have one neighbor that remarked he is stocking up on extra ammunition in case Obama does not win. I think that a bit severe but I do believe that feelings would run very high and deep if McCain were to win -- much more so than if he lost. And don't forget the world view of the US. Much of the rest of the world, especially Europe, is pulling for an Obama win. It would signal to them a steep turn in our foreign policy away from that of the failed Bush administration.

Assuming a polite, civil and resolved acceptance of a McCain win (not unlike what happened in 2000 with Bush narrowly defeating Gore), we would wind up with a Democratic majority in both houses and a Republican president with a veto threat to keep things in check. That's the only light at the end of that tunnel.

The 800 pound gorilla in the room is still the economy. With a recession looming, banks and businesses failing, unemployment rising, the Stock Market tanking and our national deficit approaching a trillion dollars we don't have a lot of wiggle room when it comes to what can be accomplished by either President elect. Either man will inherit a mess that will be harder to clean up than Chernobyl. Increased government spending will be required to deflect recessionary pressures and the deficit will undoubtedly increase because it will be impossible to effectively increase taxes without exacerbating the recession. Fun times ahead indeed!

So, enjoy the ghosts and goblins of this Halloween because they will be least scary things you will encounter during the next year.